**** How Could Changes in Beijing China Impact Us ****
Material from Economist.com eNewsletter.
Hi again with more reading and trend information. See an article excerpt below.
What would finder more interesting is the comparison of the cost of water to the cost of gas (energy) in the article below.
This leads me to a few questions.
Are we (Nebraskan's) more interested in keeping a green lawn while driving less miles? How do we see ourselves giving up some things to keep something else (our current habits, e.g., saving for the future, saving for your children's education, eating out less, etc.)? At what cost of water will it take to change our habits or change the way we utilize our space (yards)?
Randy Nelson had an excellent comment last Wednesday, we need to include demographic information as part of the process. I would submit that we also need to disclose how we currently spend and save on our resources (monies, recycling). Does someone have access to a pie chart that show what the "average" American spends to include Midwestern's and our corresponding saving patterns? How can we apply the current trend data in a futures projection? Or is this important as part of the overall process we are going through? I think it would really help the high school and college students to see how their future is going to be impacted by these mega trends, especially if you can relate it to a pay check (hourly wage, etc).
Mark
BEIJING BRIEFING
June 2006
Nor any drop to drink
With its meagre natural water resources, Beijing has always struggled to meet demand. Today, with its burgeoning population and rising standards of living, the strains are greater than ever. Officials say the city is suffering its worst drought in 50 years. Beijing’s rainfall totalled only 17 millimetres in the first four months of the year, a decline of 63% on 2005 figures. The capital's available water supply stands at just 300 tonnes per person per year. Across China, the average is 2,200 tonnes; across the world it is 6,900 tonnes. According to international benchmarks, 1,000 tonnes marks the threshold for “severe water scarcity”. In order to make up the shortfall Beijing has had to tap into underground aquifers, which lowers the water table and reduces the amount available for industry and agriculture.
The city and central governments have dedicated 22 billion yuan ($2.75 billion) to projects that will divert water to Beijing from less water-stressed areas. The city is also planning a host of other measures. Water-saving fixtures, such as taps, showers and toilets, will be required in public facilities from June, and in homes by the end of the year. The city has already raised water prices and sewerage-treatment fees several times in recent years, and plans still more. On May 15th, Beijing launched a survey of water consumption by non-critical users such as golf courses, saunas and car-washes. Officials will soon designate “rational” levels for these users, and impose steep fines on businesses that exceed them.
Steel away
The Capital Iron and Steel Company, China's fourth-largest steel producer and Beijing's largest polluter, has taken another step in its protracted journey out of the city. Unpropitiously located directly upwind from the city, the company has belched black smoke since its founding in 1919. But now, with Beijing's air quality ranking among the world's worst and the 2008 Olympic Games around the corner, it is yielding to public pressure and preparing to relocate its industrial operations to the town of Caofeidian, in neighbouring Hebei province. On May 20th, the company-known in Chinese as Shougang-shut down its Number 2 coking oven, which had been a record-setting producer of industrial coke and other chemicals since 1964.
Shougang produces 8m tonnes of steel in Beijing every year, but plans to halve that figure by 2008. The company also intends to suspend production during the Olympics. By 2010, all production will have moved to Caofeidian, with research facilities and corporate headquarters remaining in the capital. Lu Hao, the vice mayor, told state media that Shougang's vacated industrial zone would be converted into “a new and vital part of Beijing”.
-----Original Message-----
From: Mark Hall, Tru Mark Service
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:20 PM
To:
Subject: America -- Along With the Rest Of The World -- Is Running Out Of Cheap Oil!
Hi,
Thought you might find this advertisement interesting. This on-line ad is trying
to get you to invest in oil and natural gas production opportunities. They indicate
that we have peaked at "cheap" oil production in 2006. They make an
interesting connection and comparison between Mexico's and China's per capita
oil usage. What similar types of connections and comparisons can we make
to help with our trends as part of the dialogue and focus groups?
Mark
Urgent Special Report
America -- Along With the Rest Of The World -- Is Running
Out Of Cheap Oil!
We burn through nearly 30 million barrels a year. Even 90% of the chemicals we use for farming, making drugs and making plastics... all come from oil. It's a habit we can't quit.
Over the last five years, the world burned 27 billion barrels
per year. But the oil industry only discovered 3 billion new
barrels per year. How long can you use up nine times what
you're finding in replacement? Not long!
Over the entire history of the Oil Age... starting in 1859... the world has burned
approximately 950 billion barrels of oil. Some of the most respected geologists in the world put the remaining oil reserves at 1 trillion.
That sounds like a lot of oil. Until you consider:
When you average together peak production dates for all the major oil producing
countries... including Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC that have not yet peaked...
YOU GET A GLOBAL PEAK PRODUCTION FORECAST FOR SMACK-DAB
IN THE MIDDLE OF 2006!
That's the conservative estimate.
And it's not just the geological crisis that will make energy scarce.
For instance, take a look at China...
• General Motors just made an announcement. They're about to double their
production of cars for the Chinese market.
• China had just 700,000 cars in 1993. Now they have 7 million. They also had
only 15 million motorcycles then. Now they have over 100 million!
• China's energy use alone has already doubled over the last 20 years. Suppose
China started using oil at a rate like, say, Mexico?
• Right now China uses just 1.7 barrels of oil per Chinese citizen. Mexico uses 7
barrels per person. If China matched those rates, total DAILY oil demand in
China would soar to 24 million barrels per day. More than is the United States.
And about 30% of the total oil demand worldwide!
• China expects to import TWICE as much oil as the United States, within the next
15 years. Their rate of oil demand growth is already double the percentage
demand growth worldwide.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand just grew this year at its fastest pace since 1980. Average global demand is 88.1 million a day. Out of that, about 20 million barrels of daily oil demand comes from the United States. That's a hard number to get your head around.
You have to ask... If there's more cheap energy to discover, where is it? Most of the alternative energies -- wind, solar, hydro and even hydrogen -- will take too long to develop to be in place by 2006.
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